The Daily Telegraph - May 2026 National Voter Sentiment Survey
Our first post-budget poll, published exclusively for the Daily Telegraph, finds the Coalition overtaking Labor on the two-party preferred, 51% (+2%) to 49% (-2%). This is the first time since the 2025 federal election that Labor has trailed the Coalition on the traditional two-party preferred metric.
This is despite the Coalition remaining in third place on primary votes, securing 25% (+2%) in this month’s survey, behind Labor on 29% (-1%), and One Nation on 27% (+4%). The Greens, trailing on 10% (-3%) and Independent/Other on 9% (-2%) experienced falls since our March survey.
On a three-party preferred (3PP) basis, Labor leads on 43% (-3), followed by One Nation on 30% (+3), and the Coalition on 27% (0).
Despite One Nation recording a higher primary vote than the Coalition, respondent allocated preference flows found One Nation continuing to trail Labor on a Labor vs. One Nation TPP basis, 54% (-2%) to 46% (+2%).
For the first time in a Fox & Hedgehog survey, the Leader of the Opposition Angus Taylor has overtaken the Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to be Australia’s preferred Prime Minister 38 (+3) to 36 (-3).
Voters were also asked whether they believed the Albanese Government had done enough to deserve re-election, and whether either Angus Taylor and the Liberals, or Pauline Hanson and One Nation were ready for Government.
57% of voters believed the Albanese Government did not deserve re-election, and that it was “time to give someone else a go”, compared to 28% who believed they had done enough for re-election.
However, voters appear split as to who would be the best alternative to form government.
40% stated they believed Pauline Hanson and One Nation were ready for Government, while 45% disagreed.
Only 30% believed Angus Taylor and the Liberals were ready, while 44% disagreed.
A ‘Teal-style’ political party
Following media reports that a number of Teal Independents were in discussions to form a political party, this month’s survey also asked respondents their intended vote if a “Teal-style” political party were an option on the ballot paper. The poll found a Teal-style political party would record a primary vote of 6%. The source of the Teal-style vote were as follows:
Independent/Other (32%)
Labor (26%)
One Nation (21%)
Greens (11%)
Coalition (10%)
Following the inclusion of a Teal-style party, a small number of voters who stated they intended to vote for One Nation switched their vote to the Coalition. This resulted in the counter-intuitive outcome of the Coalition having a 1% higher primary vote with a Teal-style party on the ballot paper (26%) compared to a ballot paper without such a party (25%).
The report also found the term ‘Community Independents’ is viewed significantly more favourably by voters than the phrase ‘Teal Independents’. While both are intended as shorthand for the same political movement, the former recorded a net approval of +10, while the latter recorded a net approval of -10.
The Federal Budget
This month’s survey also included questions on the Federal Budget. 19% of voters held a favourable view of the budget, while 47% held an unfavourable view (net -28).
Voters across all age demographics were more likely to believe the three key revenue measures announced in the budget (ending negative gearing on existing homes, changes to the capital gains discount, and a minimum 30% tax on discretionary trusts) were all more likely to affect them negatively than positively.
A majority of voters also believed the $250 Working Australian Tax Offset (WATO) would not have any financial impact on them (51%), while 35% believed it would be a net positive.
On budget communication, more voters under 35 reported having seen memes on social media comparing the Prime Minister to a 47% equity partner in their business (36%), than had seen Jim Chalmers explaining or promoting the budget (35%).
When voters were asked whether they trusted the Albanese Government to keep its word not to tax the family home, or introduce death taxes in future budgets, only 20% expressed trust as did only 47% of Labor voters. 59% of voters did not trust the Albanese Government to keep its word not to introduce these taxes in future budgets.
Voters also expressed limited understanding of the core budget policies of either the Coalition or One Nation.
When asked what the implications of indexing tax brackets, 84% of voters were unable to identify that the Coalition’s policy’s effect would be to make income tax a stable share of income over time, rather than an increase or decrease.
86% of voters, including 80% of One Nation voters, were unable to identify One Nation’s policy income tax policy (income splitting for families) from a list of potential tax relief measures.
Link to the full article in The Daily Telegraph: https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/poll-reveals-australians-want-to-give-someone-else-a-go/news-story/822912d3d85418363515e3ea0e062986
Link to the full report: https://tinyurl.com/May2026-Poll-FH
Link to the APC Long Methodology Statement: https://tinyurl.com/May2026-Methodology-FH