Herald Sun - Victorian Treaty Poll

Today, new research from Fox & Hedgehog, commissioned by the Institute of Public Affairs, was published in the Herald Sun.

The polling, conducted among 1,810 Victorians, found the state is divided over the Victorian Labor Government’s proposed treaty legislation, which is currently before the Legislative Council. More Victorians oppose a treaty between the state government and Victorian Aboriginal groups than support it.

In a forced-choice scenario, 52% of Victorians oppose a treaty, while 48% support. This closely resembles the 2023 Voice referendum, where 54% of Victorians opposed the Voice, while 46% supported. When Victorians are given the option to remain undecided, 37% of Victorians support a treaty between the state and Aboriginal groups, 42% oppose, and 21% are unsure.

The demographic groups that support and oppose treaty reflect the same polling trends of supporters and opponents of the 2023 referendum. Around four in five voters hold the same view on treaty as they did on the Voice, indicating stable underlying attitudes.

Support for treaty declines from 48% to 40% when respondents are informed of the likely outcomes of a treaty. Opposition commensurately rises from 52% to 60%.

When shown the Statewide Treaty Bill 2025’s definition of treaty, support falls slightly further to 39%, and opposition rises to 61%.

Just over half of Victorians oppose ‘Gellung Warl’ being independent from the direction or control of the Victorian Government, with the remaining respondents evenly split between supporting its independence, and being undecided.

The poll of 1,810 Victorians was conducted between 3-10 October 2025, with a margin of error of 2.7% (95% confidence).

Herald Sun article: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/survey-by-institute-of-public-affairs-reveals-low-number-of-victorians-support-a-treaty-with-indigenous-australians/news-story/45d071f2075a8feb477f4cf41aea0383

The full report, including cross-tabs is available at: https://ipa.org.au/publications-ipa/research-papers/poll-victorian-treaty